A mere eight weeks ago that the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while the Villa manager scolded him for not reading a through-ball. Back then, as the club went six without a win, the question was whether his performances were a sign or the source of the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. After Rogers swept in his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?
This is a particularly tough question to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, while the victories have piled up.
As per the data, twice all season has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team who have put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem strangely fragile – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to save the day with some precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened against United.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition managed more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain blasting the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When Rogers faced the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
